David Ndii Explains Why Milk Is Disappearing From Kenyan Supermarket Shelves

Chief Economic Adviser David Ndii has dismissed concerns over a national milk shortage, attributing supermarket stockouts to a sharp rise in domestic consumer demand rather than a drop in supply.

Speaking at the 2026 NCBA Economic Forum in Nairobi on Tuesday, November 3, Ndii explained that Kenya’s milk output has expanded significantly under the current administration, but rapidly shifting consumption patterns are putting unprecedented pressure on retail supply chains.

To illustrate this shift, Ndii pointed to the workforce driving the nation’s infrastructure boom, specifically workers at government affordable housing projects who are consuming higher quantities of dairy products.

“Then the question becomes who’s consuming this milk? Certainly probably not the people in this room who haven’t increased their consumption a lot. But it means that there are people who weren’t consuming a lot of milk who are now consuming a lot of milk,” Ndii said.

“And I can tell you where you can find them. If you go to any of our construction sites where we are doing affordable housing, where there are a couple of hundred thousand people working every day or in the construction site, you will find crates of milk sitting there.”

He noted that contractors now routinely provide milk alongside daily rations to sustain laborers on site.

“Because that’s one of the things that construction workers provide to the workers on site as well as other things,” he said.

Production and Processing Data Show Record Growth

Citing official data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Ndii revealed that annual milk production has jumped 20 percent since the current administration took office, reaching an estimated 5.6 billion liters per year.

“The increase is actually more milk than 90 percent of the countries in Africa produce, just the increase. It’s more milk than most of the countries in Africa actually produce, more dairy milk,” he stated.

Commercial processing figures mirror this surge. Milk processors saw intake rise 34 percent, from approximately 500 million liters in 2022 to one billion liters last year. Despite recent weather challenges, intake during the first eight months of 2026 remained virtually identical to the same period in 2025.

For Ndii, these metrics clearly indicate that retail inventory gaps stem from market demand outpacing supply chain delivery.

“So if there is no reduction in supply and there’s actually a very sharp increase in both production and the intake by processors, what can explain the stockouts on the shelf? What explains the stockouts on the shelves? The only thing left to explain that stockout on the shelves is demand,” he said.

Dairy Sector Generates Billions for the Economy

Highlighting the economic footprint of the dairy industry, Ndii estimated that total annual production yields nearly Ksh400 billion at current farm-gate prices. High demand for quality livestock has driven prices for top-tier dairy heifers to between Ksh300,000 and Ksh350,000, while Kenya continues to import high-yield breeds from South Africa and the Netherlands while exporting livestock across Africa.

Addressing statistical gaps, Ndii observed that official economic reporting often lags behind rapid structural shifts in emerging markets. He confirmed ongoing discussions with KNBS to update traditional sampling models so they accurately reflect fast-growing, non-traditional sectors across the country.

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