How Kenya’s private sector can stay resilient and risk-proof in 2026
Kenya enters 2026 with a cautiously optimistic economic outlook, but also with a sharper-than-ever need for resilience. The World Bank projects the economy to grow at an average of 4.9% through 2026–2027, buoyed by easing inflation and improved credit conditions.
However, businesses face persistent headwinds: macroeconomic uncertainty, climate volatility, and political transitions are already reshaping the operating environment. For leaders, resilience is no longer a defensive measure. It’s a strategic lever for growth.
To stay resilient and risk-proof, Kenyan businesses must proactively strengthen their core foundations across six integrated pillars.
Build Financial Buffers and Strengthen Capital Structures
Despite the positive momentum, inflation remains sticky – hovering around 6.9% and external pressures such as geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices could tighten financial conditions. Businesses face an increased call to prioritise liquidity by strengthening balance sheets, building financial reserves, and diversifying credit sources.
The recovery in credit growth forecast for 2026 presents an opportunity for firms to renegotiate facilities, restructure debt where necessary, and secure financing aligned with long-term growth priorities. For MSMEs, disciplined cash-flow management and insurance protection against property, operational and political risks will be critical as the country heads toward the 2027 election cycle.
Invest in Digital Transformation as a Core Resilience Strategy
Digital transformation has moved from operational convenience to organisational survival. Research shows that digital adoption – particularly e-commerce, data analytics and FinTech integration – strengthens market agility, stabilises revenues and enables businesses to scale beyond physical and geographic limitations.
In 2026, firms should prioritise systems that enhance business continuity: cloud migration, digital customer service platforms, automated operations, and data-driven decisioning. Digital capabilities are especially vital for small businesses, who remain highly vulnerable to disruptions caused by power outages, supply chain delays and inflationary shocks.
Reinforce Supply Chains and Operational Continuity
Kenyan businesses continue to face pressure from global supply chain instability, climate-related disruptions and shifting trade links. In this environment, operational continuity must be reframed as a strategic function, not a reactive one.
Leaders should diversify supplier bases, shorten supply chains where possible, and invest in predictive analytics that flag vulnerabilities early. Business insurance remains a crucial tool for safeguarding assets and maintaining continuity during political or climate-driven disruptions.
As we approach a politically active period ahead of 2027, risk transfer mechanisms will be especially important.
Integrate Climate Preparedness into Corporate Strategy
Climate events are a persistent top threat, affecting food systems, commodity prices, and household purchasing power, easily threatening to undo expected growth gains. Leaders must move decisively from simple climate awareness to comprehensive climate readiness.
This involves strengthening physical infrastructure, improving energy resilience, adopting sustainable resource use, and building robust climate risk models to inform long-term planning. For core sectors like agriculture, logistics, and manufacturing, proactive climate adaptation will form both a resilience measure and a significant competitive advantage.
Build Strong People, Culture, and Leadership Systems
Success is ultimately defined by strong people, culture, and leadership systems. Kenya’s competitive edge lies in its dynamic private sector and its young, innovative workforce. Leadership determines whether organizations harness or squander this potential.
Organizations must foster adaptive cultures built on clear communication, adaptability, and employee wellbeing to navigate volatility successfully. Leaders must create environments where teams can respond quickly to market shifts, innovate under pressure, and maintain high performance without burnout.
As inflation cools and growth picks up, firms that prioritise talent development and organisational health will be best positioned to capture new opportunities.
Strengthen Enterprise Security and Governance
Businesses are responding to rising operational and political risks by expanding their security budgets. Reports indicate 79% of Kenyan firms expect to increase spending, focusing on modern security technologies, risk assessment and regulatory compliance.
In 2026, the interplay between political realignment, economic transitions and evolving regulatory frameworks will demand stronger governance systems. Firms should map investments in enterprise-wide risk assessments, scenario planning, cybersecurity infrastructure and compliance programmes that align with both local and international standards.
Grow customer obsession
With competition rising across most sectors, businesses need to double their efforts in reaching and engaging customers. Meaningful engagements will triumph over transactional interactions in 2026.
Companies that understand their customers’ evolving needs will be better positioned to anticipate challenges and adapt quickly to solve them. Businesses that can personalise contact points, products and services will deepen customer loyalty while creating business models that are adaptive to change.
Kenya’s private sector has a proven track record of resilience in the face of adversity. With improving credit conditions and projected GDP growth, 2026 presents a critical window for businesses to fortify their foundations while actively positioning for long-term expansion.
(The writer is the Group Chief Operations Officer at Old Mutual East Africa).