Kenya petrol cover drops to 16 days amid Middle East crisis

NAIROBI, Kenya, Apr 5 – Kenya’s super petrol stocks have fallen to 16 days, raising fresh concerns over fuel security as tensions in the Middle East threaten global supply chains.

Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi told the Parliamentary Energy Committee that the government is closely monitoring petroleum reserves and incoming shipments following disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Current data shows the country holds 138,623 metric tonnes of super petrol (16 days of cover), 207,841 metric tonnes of diesel (19 days), and 150,398 metric tonnes of jet fuel (49 days).

Mbadi said expected deliveries could ease short-term pressure, with 290,000 metric tonnes of super petrol—equivalent to 47 days of cover—scheduled between March and April.

However, Kenya’s high monthly consumption—255,000 metric tonnes for petrol, 170,000 for diesel, and 80,000 for jet fuel—continues to narrow the buffer.

The crisis has strained global supply chains, with the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route, facing disruptions that have delayed shipments and increased risks for cargo vessels.

Industry players are monitoring vessels en route to Kenya, amid fears that prolonged instability could quickly erode available stocks.

Beyond supply concerns, Mbadi warned of significant fiscal risks, estimating potential revenue losses of up to Sh60 billion in the 2025/26 financial year depending on the duration of the crisis.

Petroleum imports generate about Sh30 billion monthly in taxes, while imports from the Middle East contribute roughly Sh273 billion annually, underlining the country’s exposure to external shocks.

He also flagged pressure on Kenya’s financial position following the February 2026 $2.25 billion Eurobond transaction, noting that rising global uncertainty could affect investor sentiment.

While incoming shipments—including diesel and jet fuel—offer temporary relief, sustained instability in the Gulf region could disrupt replenishment cycles and tighten supply in the coming months.